{"id":169,"date":"2021-10-09T17:31:47","date_gmt":"2021-10-09T17:31:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ouyangminwei.com\/?p=169"},"modified":"2021-10-09T18:14:32","modified_gmt":"2021-10-09T18:14:32","slug":"lineage-m-simuation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ouyangminwei.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/09\/lineage-m-simuation\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5929\u5e38M\u62bd\u5361\u6a21\u64ec"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.4gamers.com.tw\/news\/detail\/50223\/dinter-lineage-m-dispute\">https:\/\/www.4gamers.com.tw\/news\/detail\/50223\/dinter-lineage-m-dispute<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6700\u8fd1\u5be6\u6cc1\u4e3b\u4e01\u7279\u5728\u5929\u5802m\u4e2d\u7838\u4e86200\u842c\u62bd\u947d\u62bd\u7d2b\u5e03\uff0c\u524d\u524d\u5f8c\u5f8c\u9032\u884c475\u6b21\u88fd\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u6210\u529f11\u6b21\uff0c\u6bd4\u5b98\u65b9\u6240\u5ba3\u5e03\u768410%\u9084\u4f4e\u4e0a\u8a31\u591a\uff0c\u4e01\u7279\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u88fd\u4f5c\u6a5f\u7387\u8ddf\u5b98\u65b9\u516c\u544a\u7684\u300c\u6240\u6709\u5546\u57ce\u6a5f\u7387\u8207\u97d3\u7248\u4e00\u81f4\u300d\u6709\u6240\u843d\u5dee\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u5411\u6d88\u4fdd\u6703\u63d0\u51fa\u7533\u8a34\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u904a\u6232\u6a58\u5b50\u91dd\u5c0d\u6a5f\u7387\u4e00\u4e8b\u7d66\u51fa\u56de\u61c9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u4e01\u7279\u81c9\u9ed1\u9084\u662f\u904a\u6232\u6a58\u5b50\u662f\u6709\u554f\u984c\u7684\u5462? \u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u6c7a\u5b9a\u91dd\u5c0d\u62bd\u5361\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\u4f86\u505a\u6a21\u64ec\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u908a\u6211\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7a0b\u5f0f\u662f Julia + Jupyter<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9996\u5148\u662f\u62bd\u5361\u7684\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff0ctimes \u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e86\u62bd\u5361\u7684\u6b21\u6578(\u4f8b\u5982\u9019\u88e1\u5c31\u662f475\u6b21)\uff0cprob\u5c31\u662f\u62bd\u5230\u7d2b\u5e03\u7684\u6a5f\u7387(\u9019\u88e1\u662f10%)\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u88e1\u62bd\u5361\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5c31\u662f\u5f9e0~1\u96a8\u6a5f\u9078\u4e00\u500b\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u9019\u6578\u5b57\u5c0f\u65bcprob\u4ee3\u8868\u62bd\u5230\u4e86\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5927\u65bc\u5247\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u5f8c\u4ed6\u6703\u7d66\u6211\u5011\u9019\u6b21\u62bd\u5361\u7684\u6a5f\u7387 (\u4f8b\u5982\u4e01\u7279\u5c31\u662f 11\/475\uff0c\u62bd\u5361475\u6b21\u6210\u529f11\u6b21)\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<script src=\"https:\/\/gist.github.com\/OuYangMinOa\/844f100abcc59ee4d5c55ee830d03343.js\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6e2c\u8a66\u5e7e\u6b21\u770b\u770b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/ouyangminwei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/image-16.png\" alt=\"\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u7247\u7684 alt \u5c6c\u6027\u503c\u70ba\u7a7a\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6a94\u6848\u540d\u7a31\u70ba image-16.png\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u6a5f\u7387\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u572810%\u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6e2c\u8a661\u5343\u842c\u6b21\u770b\u770b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<script src=\"https:\/\/gist.github.com\/OuYangMinOa\/d784a5b8b57fb7d0e46be6c2a1cfba0e.js\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/ouyangminwei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/image-17.png\" alt=\"\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u7247\u7684 alt \u5c6c\u6027\u503c\u70ba\u7a7a\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6a94\u6848\u540d\u7a31\u70ba image-17.png\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u662f\u62bd\u5361\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5716(Histogram)\uff0cx\u8ef8\u662f\u6a5f\u7387\uff0cy\u8ef8\u662f\u6a5f\u7387\u7684\u5bc6\u5ea6\u5206\u5e03(\u6b21\u6578\u9664\u4ee5\u5bec\u5ea6)\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5bc6\u5ea6\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6b21\u6578\u8d8a\u591a\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u523010%\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u6578\u503c\u662f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u901a\u5e38\u9019\u7a2e\u5206\u4f48\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u9ad8\u65af\u5206\u5e03\u53bb\u505afitting(\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u535c\u74e6\u677e\u5206\u5e03)\uff0c\u03bc\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u662f\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u03c3\u5247\u662f\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230 \u03bc \u7684\u6578\u503c\u975e\u5e38\u7684\u63a5\u8fd110%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u65e2\u7136\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u62bd\u5361\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u66f2\u7dda\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u53bb\u601d\u8003 2.3% \u662f\u5728\u5e7e\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u4e4b\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/ouyangminwei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/image-18.png\" alt=\"\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u7247\u7684 alt \u5c6c\u6027\u503c\u70ba\u7a7a\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6a94\u6848\u540d\u7a31\u70ba image-18.png\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>\u7b54\u6848\u662f 5.57\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u4e2d\uff0c 1.645 \u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u4ee3\u8868\u8457\u662f 95% C.L(confidence level \u4fe1\u5fc3\u6c34\u6e96)\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a 5.57 \u6bd4 1.645 \u591a\u4e863.895\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u7684\u5c0f\uff0c\u90a3\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a 5.57\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u5c0d\u61c9\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u5462 ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> \u5982\u679c\u8981\u8a08\u7b97\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528<strong>\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5206\u5e03\u51fd\u6578(Cumulative Distribution Function)<\/strong>\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u7d93\u7531\u9019\u500b\u51fd\u6578\u77e5\u9053\u8981\u5728\u9019\u500b\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7372\u5f97 &#8220;2.3%&#8221;\u6210\u529f\u7387\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/ouyangminwei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/image-19.png\" alt=\"\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u7247\u7684 alt \u5c6c\u6027\u503c\u70ba\u7a7a\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6a94\u6848\u540d\u7a31\u70ba image-19.png\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f7f\u7528\u5e73\u5747\u662f10\uff0c\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u662f1.38\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7387\u662f2.3%\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u5927\u6982\u662f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size\">  <strong>1\u5104\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00!!!!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forum.gamer.com.tw\/C.php?bsn=25908&amp;snA=48280\">https:\/\/forum.gamer.com.tw\/C.php?bsn=25908&amp;snA=48280<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f8c\u4f86\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u8aaa\u53f0\u670d\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u662f 5% \u800c\u4e0d\u662f 10%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>OK\u963f\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u5728\u505a\u4e00\u6b21\u6a21\u64ec\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/ouyangminwei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/image-20.png\" alt=\"\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u7247\u7684 alt \u5c6c\u6027\u503c\u70ba\u7a7a\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6a94\u6848\u540d\u7a31\u70ba image-20.png\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u78ba\u5be6\u79fb\u52d5\u52305%\u56c9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/ouyangminwei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/image-21.png\" alt=\"\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u7247\u7684 alt \u5c6c\u6027\u503c\u70ba\u7a7a\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6a94\u6848\u540d\u7a31\u70ba image-21.png\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong>\u7d04\u70ba2.7\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/ouyangminwei.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/image-22.png\" alt=\"\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u7247\u7684 alt \u5c6c\u6027\u503c\u70ba\u7a7a\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6a94\u6848\u540d\u7a31\u70ba image-22.png\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5e73\u5747\u662f5%\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7387\u70ba2.3%\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u662f \u5343\u5206\u4e4b3\uff0c\u4f60\u8aaa\u9019\u6a5f\u7387\u9ad8\u55ce?\u4e0d\u9ad8\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u662f\u8870\u5230\u4e0d\u884c\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4e0d\u7136\u9019\u500b\u6a5f\u7387\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c2.7 \u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee \u4e5f\u6bd4 1.645 \u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u9ad8\u4e861.1\u500b\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u4e86\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size\"><strong>\u7d50\u8ad6<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5b98\u65b9\u516c\u5e03\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba10%\uff0c475\u6b21\u4e2d\u53ea\u6210\u529f\u4e8611\u6b21\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c2.3%\u78ba\u5be6\u6709\u9ede\u4f4e\uff0c\u82e5\u4ee55%\u7684\u6210\u529f\u7387\u4f86\u770b\uff0c 475\u6b21\u4e2d\u53ea\u6210\u529f\u4e8611\u6b21\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u70ba 0.3%\uff0c\u6a5f\u7387\u9084\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u7684\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc 95% \u4fe1\u5fc3\u6a19\u6e96\u8a31\u591a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6c92\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u5916\u529b\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a8d\u70ba\u8207\u5b98\u65b9\u516c\u544a\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>https:\/\/www.4gamers.com.tw\/news\/detail\/5 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/ouyangminwei.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/09\/lineage-m-simuation\/\">\u95b1\u8b80\u5168\u6587 <span 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